John,
re: Crock of BS from a QUALCOMM Pilgrim
<< Crock of BS from NOK >>
Ah, its the QUALCOMM missionary of the day ... preaching the QUALCOMM gospel of the day. At least we are on topic despite the opening line ...
Worth a repeat:
"Ollila said that Nokia's original timeframe remained in effect, despite the fact that some have voiced doubt that the technology would debut in the schedule set by operators and manufacturers."
Does that "some" that "have voiced doubts" include, Dr. Irwin Mark Jacobs with the famous November slide presented to the Goldman, Sachs Internet Conference on November 15, 2000, that said "W-CDMA - Commercial Availability 2003 ???" ... and does it include his son Dr. Paul Jacobs who used the same slide when speaking at Deutsche Banc Alex Brown 2000 Technology Conference on November 14, 2000 ... or Rich Sulpizio who used a modified version when speaking at Bof A's Tech conference?
You know, John, when you substitute orchestrated FUD and HYPE for marketing and standards involvement, in this industry, and leave an audit trail like the QUALCOMM management team inspired and led by Dr. Irwin Mark Jacobs has done since November, you are likely to get burned ... again. It is hard to move product and increase market share when credibility is low, no matter how many whitepapers you publish.
Right now cdmaOne/cdma2000 has 11.45% market share world wide. Hopefully that market share will increase. Maybe Strategy Analytics has the growth rate pegged, correctly, but then again, maybe Strategis has it pegged properly. Pretty big variance ... wish we had the methodology and detail from both firms to drill down on that variance.
Did you happen to listen to Dr. Irwin Mark Jacobs presentation at CTIA ... and his comments about the FT article that knocked 20% off QUALCOMM's market cap in a single day ... and did you here how he explained that as a "reaction" a leading equipment supplier (meaning Nokia) said that they would be delivering W-CDMA handsets in quantity by the end of 2002?
Where was Irwin in January when Jorma Ollila announced Nokia's timetable for W-CDMA infrastructure and handsets? Presumably he follows the industry closely? Maybe he thinks that Jorma is not very credible? Maybe he would like to "earn" the reputation Jorma enjoys in the industry for credibility?
So anyway, to maintain (?) credibility, QUALCOMM quickly stops using the term "commercial availability" (and QUALCOMM set a benchmark for what that REALLY means with the same set of slides) and migrates quickly to "commercial viability" to "volume deliveries" to "mass deployment" or whatever the QUALCOMM term of the day is to describe the important first mover advantage of the technology they promote over the variant they just benefit from, but have no architectural control over.
Some time ago, I made some extended observations on credibility, its significance to me, and the general approach of QUALCOMM management related to it, here:
Message 15106535
Does all this have some concern for me? Yes. QUALCOMM remains my largest portfolio holding. If their current "marketing" tactics work. Great. I do however, continue to question whether or not they will be as successful as they would like to be, by using their chosen set of tactics.
As I have commented before, their air interface technology, backed by their powerful patent portfolio, their chip design expertise, and their evolving "solutions" capabilities ... don't really necessitate hype, but old habits are hard to break.
Also worth repeating:
"We will launch our first GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) products in the third quarter (of this year) and have significant volume towards the fourth quarter," Ollila said. "GPRS will become very significant during the fourth quarter and eventually lead to 3G in the latter half of 2002."
<< Operators to buy GPRS brain cookers 3Q 2001. and then buy W-CDMA 2H 2002. >>
President Ford was often accused of playing football too often without a helmet.
This leads me to ask ... have you been talking a lot wirelessly with your mobile held close to your ear at the SAR "hot spot"? <g>
Hopefully you practice safe mobile telephony, which if your driving, will make you less of a road hazard.
Of course, since no handsets come to market without passing SAR tests and complying with the legislated limits for a specific country, there is not really much to worry about, even if the theories or speculation that mobiles may interfere with our cells' DNA mechanisms despite the devices' minimal tissue heating effect, turn out to be valid, is there?
<< There are going to be some busy bees over in Euroland if this happens. >>
Not IF, John, WHEN.
There are of course some busy bees in Euroland right now. They are in Hannover, Germany ... looking at the latest in technology, wireless and wired ... muttering "Where is QUALCOMM?", "Where is QUALCOMM?"
Keep that helmet on. <g> The SAR speculation could be real.
Most appreciate you posting over the comments by Jorma. We can compare them to Irwin's slides Q4 2002.
- Eric - |
