See, this is what I mean when I say sentiment hasn't bottomed, there is still too much hope. The semis and semi-equips are up, because MU says that inventories are getting cleared. But MU also said capex was getting cut. So, there was some good news, and some bad news for the semi-equips. When sentiment is at a nadir, if investors are not totally disinterested, they will focus on the bad news. At the sentiment nadir, we would not rally on what MU said.
I think the evidence is overwhelming that consumer and business demand for products with chips in them, is in a decline that has nowhere near bottomed. Clearing out the inventories is nice (memory chips is only one type, however), but there is still huge overcapacity in the chip industry. Demand has to increase, and/or capacity has to get taken out (by shutting down fabs, or waiting until they become obsolete). We are nowhere near that point.
I was greedy, waiting for 40 to cover my short, and now it looks like we're going to be testing 50 again soon. I'm really disappointed in AMAT as a short. Many other stocks have been hitting new 2-year lows every day the Nas is down, while AMAT just dips below 45, then rebounds. I'm thinking NTAP is going to warn soon, and might be a good short on any 25-30% rally. |
