bought NTAP puts at the close, June 22.5s. Will cover when we set new lows.
Geez, that's a lot of premium, but at least you have some time.
I'm expecting a rally here, maybe 200-300 points on the DUNG over a few weeks. I *highly* doubt it can make it through the 1990 trendline. Former High Flyers like NTAP can really move in this type of environment.
The Clowns had a consensus prior to Tuesday's rate cut that if we got 50 bp, the market would plunge into the abyss, and on 75 bp we'd rally bigtime. I typically try to play the opposite of what the Clowns are doing, so I was expecting an inversion of their thinking. Personally, I feel that 50 bp is far more detrimental to the bear case. I would have much rather seen 75 or more bp. I trully wish they would cut rates to zero like Japan, that would work out best for the bears.
You should probably be alright by June, BWTFDIK? It would be bittersweet if the market did tank and I wasn't positioned to capitalize like I have been the past 8 months.
Monday - "Here's my call, 50 bp or lower, initial tank of 2 minutes to 2 days, followed by a decent rally. 75 bp or higher, initial pop of 2 minutes to 2 days, followed by a terrible decline. Going against the conventional wisdom here. I think he delivers 50 bp with words that keep "hope" alive and well."
Message 15527959
Tuesday - "On 50 bp we can't tank. It just can't go down that way. Not when the Clowns think it's coming. The majority has to be surprised and the majority is Clowns. But maybe they've given up hope on AG and are ready to capitulate. That's a myth though."
Message 15533906 |
