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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.34

+1.0%

12:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (44353)	3/22/2001 7:35:31 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Ian, It is hard for me to take the MU party line too seriously, although dram inventories are obviously a sensitive barometer that bears scrutiny. Micron is the DeBeers of DRAM and has every incentive to play their cards very close to their chest. I have not known them to be straight shooters like AMAT. I'd rather go by the inventory to sales figures that show up on their quarterly balance sheets than by anecdotal evidence and spin. The negative wealth effect does not bode well for discretionary spending on silicon trinkets. Cars and homes are somewhat less postponable IMO than PDAs, digital cameras, and the like, and are not usually financed on credit to quite the same extent. I'm not too surprised that PC DRAM inventories are being depleted at today's low prices. I maxed out my PC last month with a memory upgrade from Crucial, MU's mail order subsidiary. It was the best $63 that I have spent this year. I could be blinded by my short bias, but until the economy picks up, I just don't see the chip equipment sector breaking out of its depressed range. Sam

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