Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: marketing1 who wrote (3873)	3/22/2001 10:13:14 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) of 52237

I actually interpret the strength in the SOX as a negative. Too much denial going on still. Semis have had a 3 year cycle since their inception but they all still think "this time is different". Hasn't the last year taught anyone anything??? it is NEVER different. MU will be back to LOSING a buck a quarter a year from now IMO. Remember that MU is the stock that had JR Simplot fire the old CEO because he told the truth and then hired Appletree who was a line worker but could tell lies very well. That alone would keep me from ever owning the stock even if he does fly really neat aircraft. -ggg- INTC is saying they see no end to the ugliness. Who do you trust? Chambers has been pounding the table that the outlook is bleak as has every other company tech or non tech. As I said, I expect pop, drop then rally but is this the pop and will there be a drop, who knows? All I know is I covered and am long by default but I am not buying any new positions. If we drop as I think we might, then I will add. The worse part of these late week rallies is you can't see the COT numbers until 2 weeks after the rally to see if the commercials are covering or not since the cut off is on Tuesdays. There was good volume today and SOME of the candles look pretty nice. However it just didn't "feel" like a bottom to me. Of course I wasn't here watching every tick either. NASDAQ TRIN was nice and low all day showing it was being bought and the rally was planned. No washout in the NASDAQ/NDX while the DOW and SPX were puking though. I would prefer to see all the indexes scared to death in unison then a bounce. TICK was high and showed exhaustion selling on the NYSE but while VIX hit over 40 to show a short/mid term low was likely, it wasn't proportional to the amount of drop we have had thus far. I fully expect mucho mucho mind blowing high levels before the real bottom that is the final bottom. Also as Don said, the last leg down was over 7% lower thus we should statisticly retest these lows. That retest should come about 6 weeks after the first low. That is why I say, I am not buying size or aggressively here. We fully plan on shorting this bounce as it shows signs of stalling later. CFZ thread found some good stuff already tonight... Wow, 6.2 billion in mutual fund outflows last week. amgdata.com ============================================ AUBURN HILLS, Mich. (AP) -- DaimlerChrysler AG [NYSE:DAJ - news]'s Chrysler unit burned through $5 billion of its $7.5 billion cash reserve over the last half of 2000 on plant upgrades and consumer incentives as its U.S. auto sales fell far short of expectations, a Chrysler executive told a newspaper. biz.yahoo.com

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