re: retracement - nah, I actually saw it somewhere else. <g>
I had a thought. What if, a big IF, we are close to a bottom in the NDX bear? Imagine, me, the biggest chicken, saying that? Jtech posted the following -
Analysts meeting at this week's SEMI investment conference in New York also said
downturns in the business typically result in a 50-to-70% drop in tool orders from a
cycle's peak before they begin to pick up again. The peak in the current cycle occurred
in October at $2.99 billion for bookings--meaning that the semiconductor equipment
downturn might only be halfway over.
At the SEMInvest meeting, executives and analysts agreed that this downturn would
probably exceed the historical drop in bookings before the slump hits the bottom (see
March 21 story).
Most speakers at the SEMIinvest meeting said they believed the earliest that the bottom
could be reached would be late in the second quarter, but more likely in August or
September. However, a major question mark in a full recovery is the health of the
general economy, said analysts at the meeting
Now, doesn't the market look ahead 6 months? And, don't the economic indicators show that the economy isn't
THAT bad (yet)? And GS is lowering and maybe we get some kind of tax break?
I'm looking at a daily chart of the SOXX indice, going back to Sept. Looks like the low of 516 Nov 30 was retested
March 1 (513). Could we be starting a slow climb out of here? I don't mean a sky-rocket up, but . . .
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