I make that the largest volume this year on QQQ.
I noticed that also. I'm starting to think an alternate scenario of what I thought would happen is happening.
I've been amazed that the DOW has held up to date. And when you look at today's recovery, I mean come on, it was bullshit. Paint taping or whatever you want to call it. We saw it many times with the Naz over the last year, where it would be down big intraday but close at what looks like a not so bad price. But that didn't stop what was due to happen.
What scares me is over this time there was rotation from Naz to DOW. How else do you explain the last year where the DUNG plunged and the DOW held up? Clown logic says only the Naz was overvalued and that's why, but I don't buy that load of crap. A possibility that I'm considering is we might be entering a stage where people exit the DOW and rotate to Naz. But much like when it was going on last year, I don't expect the Naz to move, bust just tread water. By far, I still find the Naz overvalued, but the Clowns don't, so that's who to watch. If they get it in their heads that the DOW is cratoring while money moves into the Naz, they'll buy it.
First of all, I see the DOW as tanking soon. Today was just a preview. The only alternative scenario I can see is capitualation. One thing I've learned over the last year is things that should be happening today happen tomorrow, next week, next month, or haven't happened yet. To me, a "real" capitualation stage just seems way too early. On historic terms, we never end a bear this quick.
Therefore, I'm expecting further denial and more rotation. The bias will continue to be downward as people leave the market IMHO. But I don't think the wipeout stage could be here yet. And if it's not, how can both DOW and Naz tank at the same time?
I'm covering half my Crisco short tomorrow and allocating that cash to DOW stocks. The nice thing about DOW stocks is they don't bounce like DUNG stocks. None of this 10-20% up like today on select DUNG stocks. At this stage of the game, I don't have the guts to be loaded short on the Naz. It's decision time on the Naz, plunge in the abyss or rally? Given I think the DOW as dead weight and don't belive we're at a capitulation stage where both could tank at once, I gotta think the Naz is tough to play at this point.... |
