It's sad.
I could understand a taunt if the dung had clawed back even 20% of the 65% decline, but to taunt when it has clawed back a few percent is just way too emotional for me to do anything but feel compassion and foreboding.
Rallies are good. If this turns out to be more than a pop of a couple of days, then I'll give it a try on the long side and ride it with some trailing stops, but I'll be keen to give short another try when a nice long rally has put in what I consider to be the proper corrective structure that matches the decline from March/2000.
Continuing with this Elliot perspective... if I thought that this was simply a corrective move of the recent bull leg coming out of 1974, a la 1981/82 or 1989/90, then it would appear near done. However, like many others, I think this correction will be of higher degree, thus, the move since March/2000 simply represents the first leg.Once the leg is done though, the rally going into the next leg should be long and run higher than most bears will anticipate. Many on this board, including me probably, will begin to think that perhaps the bear has gone back to sleep for another few years. I expect this will take longer than any of us currently believe.
Certainly, given the once in a lifetime downtrend we have profited from since September, we risk being blind to the necessity for good rallies. Still, at this point I will keep the head down and assume we will turn down again. If the market whips me a few times, then I'll begin to think that something has changed since we turned in September. -g |
