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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (50497)3/23/2001 9:59:39 AM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
My point is that the NAZ, Dow and S@P all have a lot further to fall in spite of short covering bounces and bear rallies along the way. The stock market trades ultimately on fundamentals, that is to say, on earnings and revenue growth moving forward, and these are still pointing down. Thus, PE's will continue to come down dramatically, the longer it takes for growth to resume. Cyclical earnings growth do not command a premium PE in relation to average earnings growth.

As for my comparison of the present day stock market sell off to Japan in the early 90's and the Great Depression, that was mentioned only as a possibility, so there is no need to get alarmed. Thus far, it is playing out nicely, according to script.

Typically, Bear Markets overshoot on the downside, just as Bull Markets overshoot on the upside.

I think it is financially dangerous to pick bottoms in a bottomless pit and abyss.
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