Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 244.19

+0.7%

9:34 AM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (44425)	3/23/2001 1:58:25 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) of 70976

"How low do we go, Richard" Sorry, I can't answer that until I get replacements for the bad vacuum tubes in my crystal ball.<G> "what is your strategy?" Uncertain. One possibility would be to use the second strategy mentioned in the third-from-the-last paragraph of the following post, namely, wait for two consecutive months of increasing bookings in the SEMI reports. Message 15303114 (BTW, the link in that post is broken. The current link is suite101.com That approach would have given you the benefit of 90% of the subsequent uptrend in stock prices, while providing protection form being faked out by a single month of anomalous data. However there is a risk in using it, in that this cycle has been driven by macroeconomic events that are quite different from the last two cycles. So it is possible that the sector will respond to leading indicators of overall economic improvement long before it shows up in increased bookings. There is also the importance of end-user demand. In short, I am uncertain what the leading indicator of recovery will be this time around - i.e., I don't have a clue. <G> I am just trying to play the trading range in the mean time and hope I don't get burned.

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