Puck;
Like many of you, I am trying to divine the facts regarding the adequacy of spectrum assignments in the US particularly and also worldwide. Available at my disposal are some statements from Mark Kelley, CTO for Leap Wireless which lead me to believe that the reported spectrum shortages are improbable except in the densest population centers of the US.
What Mark stated in a rollout gala in Nashville last summer is that the cricKet (Leap Wireless' brand name for all you can use voice wireless) currently can accept as customers up to 20% of all the covered pops in their cities and in 10 mhz of spectrum. He further stated that capacity would be doubled with the addition of 1Xrtt (I may be wrong about that - could have been 1Xev) and they would be able to handle 40% of all potential subscribers in an area then.
Though I've not added up the various spectra available for PCS and cellular, I believe it was Seybold who has said that there are 218 mhz assigned including the TV channels still to be auctioned down in the 700 mhz range. I think there are something like 180 or 190 currently in the hands of operators.
Admittedly the cricKet system was built for capacity. Also Kelley was just a bit glib saying what he did and nice round numbers like 20% and 40% also make me a bit suspicious. (by the way, he also went on to point out that further planned refinements like arrayed antennas and such would get their capability up to 70 or 80%).
Though there is some doubt in my mind about the exact accuracy, the overall sentiment has been reiterated by Dan Pegg of LWIN who stated in a PR that their problem is not so much with inadequacy of spectrum but rather with companies which horde it and underutilize it. I'm sure there is no need for me to accentuate the implications of 180 mhz available if cricKet can handle 40% of all pops in 10 mhz. And though they have not actually reached that plateau yet, the Chattanooga and Nashville systems should be near 10% penetration right now.
I don't know how much spectrum is in use in Europe or elsewhere. I do recall that the objective for new 3G spectrum was to get another 160mhz available throughout the world.
Somehow all this complaining about needing more spectrum does not ring true to me. Of course a shortage is to the advantage of the carriers with the most efficient spectrum usage.
One more idea which I don't hear very much about is that spectrum may be constrained in the densest population centers, but is unlikely to be nearly as constraining as one moves out from those centers. Thus the problem really occurs only in a few places and is handled by reducing cell sizes primarily or utilizing local networks. Remember that cricKet deliberately sets out to function in the densest parts of cities in the US and builds for capacity. Right now in Knoxville, they have offered students a 2 semester plan for $189 or $21 a month. I am not familiar with the campus, but those campuses I've been affiliated with are teaming with people. One should remember though that cricKet probably only has at most 5% of the overall pops subscribed around the city and this could be a promotion which they would not make if the system were more fully utilized.
Best regards, Lance |
