I appreciate/respect your technical opinions.. Gotta be honest tho, I dont believe too much in tea-leaf reading.. For as many times as the technical folks called the market to perfection, theres an equal amount that they failed miserably. Last week I cant tell you how many times I heard '1100 by friday' or '2000 by friday' and every day the opinions change and theres always a reason why things dont behave accordingly and 'next time' they will remember to include this or that when looking at their charts.. :)
I follow a fella named Tatrader and Zeev Hed.. both are very accurate with the tea leafs, but I only follow it in the back of my mind.. In some cases, I think alot of it is self fullfilling in the short term. If nothing else, it adds discipline to your trading and contains any loses.. another form of money management if you will. but in the long term? MU can go to 50, but eventually (real soon) it will come back to reality under 20, and eventually a 52wk low..
Im am so certain Micron has been selling alot of inventory at a substantial loss in the last few weeks/months. Even 128mb and 256mb is being dumped.. Christ- you can pick up 512mb and 1 gig modules at 50-75% less than what they were 2 months ago, so these two can be added to the dump list..Actually the only save haven in memory today is when you need the 'bells and whistles' like ECC, or EDO, Buffered etc etc.. I noticed even Rambus modules are now joining the party and pricing pressures are starting now that everyone is joining that party in a desperate attempt to find margin..
Keep us up to date on the TA.. I dont mean to come off like a jerk (I always seem to do that when I disagree with people but its not intentional!).. My speculation is very simple: I sell modules all day.. and the company I work for works on razor thin margins, but the advantage we have over our competitors is we keep very VERY little inventory.. Companies like Micron and Kingston for example cant do this since they are much larger, and thus they take on tremendous risk with holding inventory over night.. In the last 3 months the prices have been on a freefall, to the point where you can get 64mb modules near $20.. (it was 60-70 not 4 months ago).. Sure prices are firming this last week, but that wont repair the damage that has been done..
Incidentally- Keep an eye on companies like CIEN, JNPR, SCMR, and CSCO.. alot of people dont realize that these folks purchase the same memory we put into our computers, and last year they were ordering more than they needed.. Id love to know how much inventory Cisco is sitting on and how much they returned to suppliers.. and of course, Lucent.. that goes without saying..
...Now of course, Micron is way over due for a fire, or some other disaster that always seems to pop up when prices are depressed.. Im sure the stock can/will go higher from here, but this isnt a day trade for me but more of a position that I plan to hold until we get our next move down in the markets.. MU moving higher at this point would only be a gift.. err as long as it dosnt break to 60-70, which at that point you win and im a goner.. |
