Analysis - Friday, March 23, 2001 12:30 pm
So far today's action has been no real surprise.
Investors are now breathing a sigh of relieve, hoping against
hope that the worst is over. This rally may last into
Monday, and the decline into the next Cycle low due near March
28, plus or minus 1 day may hold above this week's lows, but
the worst is by no means over. No matter how strong any rally
from here might ultimately be, much lower prices are still
coming this year, in line with our discussion of last evening.
Besides the reasons we have already discussed, the wave
structure from an Elliott Wave standpoint, makes it quite
clear that still lower prices are coming for this Bear
Market. We will discuss the wave structure in more detail
over the next few days.
Now, if the Dow does fall down near or below 6970, of course
the Nasdaq will ultimately move sharply lower as well. No
matter how severe any decline over the next several weeks
might be, at some point we expect a rally to begin which could
last for a couple of months. During that rally we expect the
rally in the Nasdaq to outperform the rally in the Dow. We'll
deal with that in more detail when the time comes.
Any decline below 9338 in the Dow later this afternoon
will signal that a stronger pullback is coming, but unless the
Dow falls below 9106 on a print basis, no new short-term sell
signal will be given off the Hourly Charts.
We will have a more in-depth update for you on Sunday
evening, and we will try to address some of the numerous
questions we have received from subscribers this week. |
