"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.
eserver.org - [check the spelling here - they put apostrophes in "their's", how's that for literate, lol] [i corrected it above]
The bottom for indices will come in terms of price, and in terms of time as well, and they may not be the same if there's no quick recovery, which i don't think there will be ... they used to say that the bear lasted half the length of time of the bull that preceded [and caused] it - well, if we consider the most vulnerable part of the bubble to be that which went from the Oct '98 dip to the March '00 peak - ca.finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=my
ca.finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=5y
... which period is roughly eighteen months, then the 12 months of bear to date covers it well ... and the Naz is back now to the level from which it fell into that dip ... of course it could be argued that the preceding bull really started in '91 or even '87, in which case if the half-the-length rule holds we better not hold our breath, lol.
But look here - chart.canada-stockwatch.com
... see how rounded this recent level is compared to other intermediate steps ... see how it really did not want to print 35, or got defended there, or something ... now jdu.to/jdsu really only went parabolic for about eighteen months there, late '98 to early '00, and now it's had nine months of bear ... might be all it needs? ... i know little of the fundamentals or how they stack up against competitors ...
There's a thing - the big winners of the last bull will not necessarily be those of the next, probably in most cases they will not ... in the 60s there were a batch of stocks called the Nifty Fifty, all considered must-own issues ... one of them was Avon, the door to door cosmetics ladies people ... the stock was like a hundred bucks US, it was avn.nyse as i recall ... another company has that ticker now, don't know what happened to Avon ... but when was the last time an Avon lady tried to sell you bubble bath? ... it was really hot, a friend's mother was into it, made a pretty good living, had a nice car, house etc ... had stock in the company even, i think they had one of the earliest profit-sharing plans and kicked back sharepaper for high sales ... but it's toast now ... even ibm.nyse took a long long time to come back, in fact you could buy it cheaper in '94 than in '68 - ca.finance.yahoo.com
Another of the nifty fifty, jnj.nyse, maybe did a little better but it was underwater a long time too ... this chart doesn't go back as far - ca.finance.yahoo.com
So picking the stock is just as critical as picking the time/price, more so probably ... of course this is always true ... my gawd, all that typing to come up with such an obvious and trite conclusion? - lol ... yeah, where's Lenny ... not quite time for my Hi Ho Silver post yet <snort> - kitco.com |
