"BERNADETTE", or "PSYCHOCAP II", The Sequel... from GTF discussion.
---------------
On 3/24/01 12:14:08 AM, Bernadette .. wrote:
This is the first time that I posted on the Telecosm Lounge. I loss a lot of money but I didn't go through the grieving process. I didn't sell my stocks so I'm still hoping to make money on them. I wish that I had been smart enough to sell when I was way ahead but I'm not grieving. I believe in what GG says and I hope to make a lot of money in the future. I won't need this money for six years so I feel that I have time to increase my original capital.
-----------------
Reply:
--------------
You express your thoughts well… From where I stand a) I can not with any real confidence predict what the world economy will be like over the next many years. And, b) even if I could, there is no reliable way to predict how the markets will respond to the events in the real world. From the mid – 60’s until the early 80’s the world and the technology were not standing in place, but the markets, adjusted for inflation, were crashing. There are always explanations, reasons, rationalizations, but, in the end, this is exactly what happened.
I can gather now and then enough evidence to turn bearish or bullish in the short or intermediate time frame. I am optimistic ‘very very’ long term. But I believe that I owe it to my family and to myself to remain "market – agnostic" over the ’long term’ – the next few years. Any quasi – religious beliefs will increase the chances for trouble.
As most here, I believe in the future, in the Paradigm, and I do keep a number of (presently loosing) core positions. But no new money will go into them on a permanent basis. This market is telling us something. It is telling us to adjust, or risk destruction. Yes, it is impossible to pinpoint the exact tops and bottoms in the markets, but the general ballpark areas of topping or bottoming action are often fairly identifiable. If you can do that, just keep re – sizing your positions accordingly.
I truly and strongly hope that the ‘perma – bulls’ are right. Why? Because I like to live, and I would like my children to be able to live in a happy world. During Bull markets people are happy. However, if the Bulls turn out to be wrong, I would still like to find myself doing well and among the survivors.
AK |
