Well- after looking at alot of the sector, its a 50/50 at this point.. Stocks like AMD broke out on strong volume, but than you look at AMAT and it still is having trouble closing above 51 which technical people say is the key level.. I just dont agree with the market that the bad news in this sector should be ignored or is already priced in. INTC is a perfect example- I have them on my list of 'warnings' to stay tuned to.. They are doomed too :)
I just got back from a computer show here in NJ at William Patterson.. Not completely dead, but still nothing like what you would see last year or even 6 months ago.. If memory is firming, it sure wasnt reflected at the show- my friend paid $17 (cash) for infineon 64mb.. and even more interesting (and I would guess a perfect example of the inventory problems) all brands, Micron and Kingston included- PC133 is about $5-10 cheaper than pc100.. 128mb cheapest I saw was $38, but generally $45.00. Incidentally, Im referring to CL2 memory, not the CL3 crap.. If you settle for CL3 you can deduct another few bucks on the higher end 128/256mb (64mb is all cl2 pretty much)
without going into details, suffice to say that the price you or I can buy memory for at the shows is at or below cost to manufacture. Until that changes, it tells me that there is still inventory being dumped..
but all of this means nothing in the short term simply because this sector is so unpredictable and manipulated.. but in the long run- Micron can pump all the sunshine up investors and CNBC viewers- and play fancy accounting games with this next report but in the long run, its doomed..
6 months ago a 1g system would have cost between 1500-2000 complete. You can now buy a completed system for about $500, memory and all.. I even picked up 2 used 17 inch monitors for $100 bucks.. thats after the 4% credit card surcharge :) Too much power, no demand.. What on earth does the average person need that monster for?? last year when people had money to blow, they just HAD to upgrade.. Now thats changing, and I disagree with anyone who says thats going to change 2nd half of this year..
I think if we go back about a decade, we can see that this industry is picking up right where it left off.. before the internet boom, the computer business was horrendous.. Ridiculously small profits, and so much technical support needed for each sale.. It was simply impossible to make a profit unless you were a whore and bought tons of product, and move it that same day for .05 profit.. |
