> some of the failed dot coms might ultimately have succeeded if they had not been caught in the downdraft of irrational pessimism. Those could be back, along with new ones.
It was not the irrational pessimism that caused so many .coms failing. It was irrational business plans. All the business plans were based on 2 fundamental concepts (from a business-to-consumer - or B2C - standpoint): online advertising, and e-commerce.
As for online advertising let me ask you, how often do you see - let alone pay attention - to advertising banners on Yahoo?! Those businesses who advertised on .COMs have become smart to know that it is not effective as they thought it would be. Yahoo was selling its banner space for $55 per 1000 page viewing impressions. Today it is in the proximity and range of $1.75-$15. Online ad agencies were charging between $12-$20 per 1000 page viewing impressions, today no one will be paying anything more the $0.25 to at most $2 per 1000 impressions. (and I can assure you this will dramatically drop further). Doubleclicks of the world are in big trouble and will soon go out, and as they go out so would their infrastructures (provided by companies ranging from Oracle, Sun, Cisco, Exodus, etc. etc.).
As for e-commerce, Amazon is the mother of all e-commerce businesses and it is needless to say how they have been performing. And dont be surprised to find out if they went out of business a year or 2 from now. The e-commerce businesses have been running as non-profit charitable organizations, and since the charitable donations via Venture capitalists (and other sources) have dried up these businesses will die soon. Unless of course there is a fundamental shift in the price and cost structures of such businesses.
The only area of growth in my view is the business-2-business model. And even that is still a bit questionable in terms of profit margin growth.
Anyway, time will of course tell the whole story as it progresses!
Regards, |
