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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.60

+1.5%

Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (121518)	3/24/2001 2:53:38 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) of 164684

Sarmad: We are now faced with an issue as big as the oil issue was last year -- are Americans going to start saving money or not? Cheap oil and credit greased the wheels of the "new economy" far more than people realized. Some people(no names <g>) did not grasp this and were taken by surprise over the past year. But the question now is not what happened and why -- most of us now know what happened and why -- but what will happen in the coming year? Global recession is one possibility -- a knock-on effect which could already be out of control. For the sake of keeping this simple, lets say there is a 25% probability of global recession. That leaves lots of room to consider other outcomes. The sticky part is that most people in the US do not see the imbalances in the US economy -- I think AG does and he discusses them often. His remarks are not opaque so much as they are structural, and that confuses people who do not or cannot think more deeply than, for example, the retarded "buy-the-latest-hot-stock fools" we sometimes kick around here and who congregate in ever smaller numbers on the new economy thread. Americans need to learn the difference between savings and stock speculation -- this is the real lesson of the past year. After watching a few trillion dollars go up in smoke, now is the time to repair the imbalances while it is fresh in people's minds. I think this is AGs agenda. I do not buy the idea that he gives a crap about stock prices per se -- not one bit. I think he views the economy in terms of long term growth potential, and this can be wrecked by not saving money as well as by stock speculation and asset price bubbles. Americans have their own vocabulary to describe "savings". We refer to savings as "cash on the sidelines". The implication is to view savings as money available for continued stock speculation. Think about it Sarmad -- that is how people describe savings "cash on the sidelines". I think AG wants to leave a legacy -- and the legacy I think he wants to leave is this -- AG wants to be remembered as the guy who taught Americans to save money as enthusiastically as they invest in stocks -- 50/50. This is his idea of a balanced approach that will finance the highest rate of long term growth -- the alternative is bubble and bust -- and the bust always lasts way longer than the bubble.

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