Thanks, Jay...
But I do respond casually to alot of things that I consider inconsequential. If you find my writing style confusing, you should try it from my side. I often have no idea what point you are making.
As for complexities, it occurred to me that I could tell you what my focus in my Masters program was...but I don't need to. Suffice to say, one reason I may sound confused is that I do understand the complexities, and while discussing my own points, often try to address the strength of my belief by discussing why the opposing arguments carry little weight. It's a poor method of writing, one I know is bad, which is why I needed a great deal of help doing my thesis - purely from a writing standpoint. My first attempts wound up sounding like I was disproving the point I was making...but only because I am not a good writer, not because I argued it improperly.
You may consider my actions of buying and selling in a similar vein as yours. I assure you, while the timing may appear to point to a certain belief structure, and my current stance may appear to be similar to yours, it isn't.
I am prepared, at this moment, to rejoin the market should I get the information I am looking for...I won't disclose it, because I'm not prepared to have to defend anything anymore to anyone. Which is precisely the reason why I wouldn't disclose to begin with. When you disclose information, it raises as many questions as it answers...if it answers any at all...and I don't think it does. I did it because you seem to think this is a game and felt it was a necessary component of some proof you were trying to formulate. Clearly, from your response, you got something of the answer you hoped for....though I still don't know what it was.
I'm not concerned about the savings rate from the same perspective as others. It's a problem, but it's one that can be overcome without deflation. I suspect it will, and rather quickly. If it isn't, then there are few places to keep money except in your mattress...something I'm prepared for, but not inclined to do. My feeling is that the minute people begin doing the very things they shouldn't, it won't matter what anyone does because the gig is up.
I think your response was well intentioned. I'll reconsider the ignore button. But one should learn that drivel and rants are not equivalent measurements of style and taste. A rant is fine. People rant constantly and with good reason. Drivel is garbage. If you think that you were somehow putting our posts on some kind of equivalent footing, you weren't. It was an insult. Just because you don't understand something doesn't mean it is worthless. It could be that it requires a little assistance to get to the crux of the matter.
Could be we have a difference in style, too. My professor once told me I am more rhetorical than dialectical. That is, I tend to try to form a standpoint, and argue through it as opposed to engaging in the give and take of debate. He told me this is the more powerful form of discussion, but that it has the drawback of seeming arrogance and condescending tone. Most people prefer dialectical reasoning because it is easier and more informal (so I've been told...I'm not a psychology or debate expert...so this may be wrong), which makes my style even more difficult for people to accept.
As for the future - it is what it is. I've never said it won't be a collapse. I've merely said I find that to be an extremist viewpoint, and one I don't think is at all likely.
As for the market, I've never said I'm bullish right now. I will buy select stocks if I see opportunity, and there are a few. But I know people are dying to get back in again. I see it every day. They are past the scared part. Right now I see a numbed resolution...usually the sign of a bottom. Can it kick over into fear again? Sure. But nobody likes that. Everyone would prefer to have a reason to buy. Given the right signals, they will again. I don't think the right signals will appear in the next 6 months, and I've said that before, too. |
