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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.31

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Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (73223)	3/25/2001 8:39:20 AM
From: High-Tech East	of 99985

<<i'm unsure of the bear rally, it sure does look like we should have one - the market is extremely sold out on every indicator, but i question the strength of the market>> bobby ... I agree with you, and any rally (in my opinion) will be very short lived. Between now and mid-April or so, we face a whole bunch of incredibly bad earnings warnings for Q2FY2001. I expect many companies will dump much more than their actual bad news into those warnings in an attempt to get out in front of this thing, hoping they can get expectations as low possible, and form some kind of a bottom base line from which their stocks might rally in Q3 and Q4 - unless of course the news in Q3 and Q4 turns out to be worse than Q1 and Q2. Last week I sold short two S&P June futures contracts and covered for a good profit ... also bought four out of the money S&P June puts to catch the final (perhaps final) big collapse on the S&P, NYSE Composite and the Dow that I still expect. Ken Wilson

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