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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: Les H who wrote (35015)	3/25/2001 1:59:21 PM
From: Poet	Read Replies (3) of 35685

Ugh, what shallow interpretation of what moves the market. No inclusion of global economics, no focus on the current situation as the correction of a bubble, only a flip "recessions last about 11 months". Why do I keep expecting better than this? GARZARELLI: Well, the reason we had the last leg down in the stock market beginning in late January is because earnings came out and were reported at the end of January for the fourth quarter. It surprised the Street because the S&P earnings were down 22 percent and that was a shock. So the markets plummeted. But I think that in the second half of this year and into 2002 we should have a recovery. But the first half will probably see S&P earnings down 10 to 15 percent. And maybe we're in a recession, but that doesn't matter either because the average recession is 11 months and assuming it started last October and ends this September, the market should bottom sometime in March or April, six months before.

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