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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.11

+0.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: High-Tech East who wrote (50334)	3/25/2001 2:59:50 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 77400

If you're going to short CSCO, I'd wait until we have a January-type bear rally. We need at least one more such rally, and then a subsequant fall to new lows, to kill off the last BuyTheDip mentality. In that January rally, the SOX went up 50%. CSCO bounced from 32 to 44 (37% upmove). If we make the same % move off a base at 19, you could get a chance to short CSCO at 26. Really, it's just the mirror image of the BuyTheDip strategy that worked so well in the Bull. Now, sell the rallies is the way to make money. And, everyone is doing it, which ensures that the rallies fail. I closed all my shorts/puts last Friday, as I was worried about just such a bear rally. I'm looking at shorts in NVLS and NTAP. Both are volatile stocks, with a huge amount of downward momentum, but still overpriced.

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