Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 249.89

+3.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (44521)	3/25/2001 5:19:39 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Jacob, Thank you for that insightful analysis of the correlation between CS and AMAT. There are very few, if any, holy grail indicators. Most are simply signposts to heed in keeping to the path. It sounds as though this one is well worth following. It is certainly valuable to keep in mind, as you have pointed out, that we are far from the trough levels CS reached in '75, '80, and '90. Everyone keeps saying that we are in a spanking new and much more efficient economy, but I don't know of any law suggesting that we have overcome the business cycle. Your warning about not taking LT long positions in semi-equips while CS is in a freefall, goes against the advice of Abby Joseph Cohen and most of the crowd of bulls on the street, who may be underweighting the importance of the CS indicator at the peril of their clients' pocketbooks and perhaps their own reputations. Sam

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