Still Long IPM, here's why:
In the midst of all the chaos in this thread, and the disconcerting atmosphere: Industry scandals, IPM's price down, short activity, bad press, and sudden wave of frightening posts... I sat down and really thought about it.
1. Stock price. The run to $12+ had to correct and consolidate... Runs always do. We had a force majure event in Bre-x and then settled into a pretty stable $8.50-10.50 trading range... Delgf pegged us around $9 -- and all the recent hub-bub has taken us down from $9 to $6... Not that bad, considering, but I'm no longer going to focus on the short term swings. I'm not in this stock for a buck or two. I'm not even in it for a double. I went in it knowing it was highly speculative, with a huge risk/reward factor. The bottom line for me is either IPM has the goods or they don't -- and the stock is going far north or in the toilet.
2. The "Fundamentals". I use quotes because they _do_ exist but are not the same for Jr. miners as for blue chips and neither are the rewards. I do not expect "blue chip" data/costs/low volatility to be matched with explosive growth potential... that is unrealistic. For me these are the _fundamental_ reasons why I currently own _this_ Jr -- IPM:
A. BD. It is just plain a positive that Behre-Dolbear is _still_ there. My research has continually led me to the conclusion that they would be gone in a heart beat at the first whiff of "scam". Bre-x rocked our world -- and BD is _still_ with IPM. Delgf hit closer to home and BD is _still_ with IPM.
B. Lyco. My independent research has rated them first class, strong on metallurgy, and an organization intrinsically adverse to any association with fraudulent mining companies. I believe that it is not uncommon for Engineering firms to conduct "due diligence" _before_ agreeing to work with many clients especially Jrs... and often it is done to prevent them waking up with "strange bedfellows". Yet, in the wake of Bre-x, Lyco came in, did 2 weeks or so of due diligence, and after: went to work with IPM.
C. IPM hired BD nearly 3 years ago, and BD stayed with them after a de-listing, AZBOMB and negative "standard fire assays". I just can not shake the conclusion this is an honest effort. If it fails, I am convinced it will be an honest failure. If it succeeds, well, we all have a calculators and know how many girds there are. So for me, the rewards justify the risk.
D. Assays and Credibility. While I've been way behind on the learning curve, it has become reasonable to me that the final chapter on this has yet to be written. The conventional "SFA only wisdom" just seems a bit too dogmatic, and there is credible room for questioning. Sure it's controversial -- but I was reminded by my MD sister that the idea of injecting people with strains of deadly viruses was greeted with
skepticism before the turn of the century... today the idea is called vaccination. Also, it is evident to me BD closely monitored the track IPM was on in 1995 and there was "gold found". Also, Lyco came in just recently, an outfit strong on chemistry and metallurgy, and I doubt they would have signed on if they were given a tour of "magical" rather than scientific methods.
E. There are many other factors, they've been covered before, and for
me nothing significant has changed. There has been some bad press,
but that's okay, if IPM has "the goods" this will be of little consequence other than to focus even greater attention on this "news" when it comes out.
So I will wait,
Long IPM.
Lew Green |
