COMPX
first of all ...... like i always say .. i hate 'big gap(s)' !! <GGG>
anyway .. compx gapped higher on friday; retraced lower to fill the gap and along formed the intraday bullish wedge; broke the wedge to the upside, which resulted in the 61.8% rebound higher from the size <trading range> of the wedge, but failed to break out from the neck line of the intraday inverted H&S formation <some of ya may call it cup&handle>, which along forming an intraday "bear" flag during the rebound; then, it pierced but again rebounded to close rite on the lower trend line of the bear flag; and closed the session with the indecision pattern 'long legged doji' !!!!!
** short term intraday and daily basis **
monday/tuesday will be very important to determine whether the current short term uptrending momentum will continue, or will it be reversing, and continue on its intermediate term down trending !!!!
if it's gapped lower on monday morning, which means it successfully breaks the intraday bear flag, i suspect that the short term intraday trend will be down, until it tests and holds 1855+/- at minimum !!!!
however, since it is trading at the lower trend line of the bear flag as of the closing on friday, the resistance on its upper trend line of the flag, which should be trading in conjunction to the neck line of the intraday inverted H&S, and the upper "slightly adjusted" trend line of the down trending fork, ought to be trading @1935+/- on monday, should it be gapped higher !!!! unless compx will be able to break these resistances @1935+/- <along negating the formation>, i again suspect that it may likely to be heading lower on monday <at least in the intraday basis> !!!!
now, i dont know whether we're going to get the intraday rebound which can substantially negate the short term intraday bearish trend; but i certainly wont be surprised to see it rebounds at the strong trend line support which should be trading in line with its short term 61.8% retracement @1855+/- on monday !!!!! should it rebound here as expected, pay a close attn to the same neck line/down trend line @1935+/- on its way up <should be trading slightly lower in the second half of the trading session> !!!! if it can break the neck line of the intraday inverted H&S, which along should be negating its daily 'dragon fly doji' reversal, the up trend should continue !!!!
on the other hand, if it fails to hold the support @1855+/- on monday, it's likely to be heading lower to retest its 1994-95 trend line @1810+/- !!!! if it cannot hold the trend line support @1810+/-, a new lower low should be expected in the short term basis !!!!
** short term daily and weekly basis **
on the surface of the trading on friday, it seemed like the ndx was lagging behind the compx, where IN FACT, compx was trying to catch up with the ndx !!!! ndx has closed and has been trading above its 10dma as of the closing on thursday, whereas compx was still 35+/- points behind its 10dma !!! the discrepency was reflected in the spread between the two on friday !!!!! anyway ... both are now trading in tandem !!!! so, compx closed the weekly chart with the 'long legged doji'; 2/3 of the strong reversal pattern has completed !!!! for this to be considered the 4th wave, compx has to confirm its reversal pattern at the end of this coming week; i'll keep ya updated next week !!!! but for now, one SHOULD NOT ignore the partially filled gap between 2028-2041 <was originally betw 2004-2041>, and the full gap between 2124-2161, in the intermediate term basis !!!! last but not least, regardless of whichever wave will be next, this mess is NOT over, YET !!!!
here are the 'current' retracements <until the new low or high is printed> :
S/T
- 1916
- 1892
- 1874
- 1855 **
I/T
- 1973
- 1939 **
- 1911
- 1883
I/T
- 2138
- 2072
- 2019
- 1966
I/T
- 2187
- 2112
- 2052
- 1991
L/T <some may consider this range to be the intermediate term>
- 2404
- 2288
- 2194
- 2099
L/T
- 2618
- 2460
- 2333
- 2206
all in all .. observation only .. and i maybe wrong !!!!!
regards and good luck,
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