Hi Allan,
Her "indicators" eh? Sounds like she's talking about nothing more than overbought and oversold. What a clown.
From her website:
garzarelli.com
In order to determine attractive groups, Garzarelli determines the
outlook for the economy, interest rates, and inflation using
econometric models. The system forecasts earnings for the S&P
industries using mathematical economic models. It analyzes the
relationship between relative stock price, relative earnings, and
relative P/E ratios and determines behavior during economic and
market cycles. Each industry is then ranked attractive, neutral, or
unattractive. This model developed by Elaine Garzarelli has been
back-tested with an excellent audited track record for more than 20
years. She also predicts the direction of the stock market based on
her 14-indicator stock market composite.
Also from her site:
garzarelli.com
Using her sector analysis
methodology, she predicted the stock market crash of 1987, the
upturn that followed, the 1990 bear market and the bear market
bottom in September 1990.
Not a bad record for a clown. <g>
I'm sure her website would not tell us the many times she has blown calls, but I am impressed with her previous calls of bear markets. Perhaps it's different this time... <g>
Seriously though, I'm just guessing that this interview probably didn't paint her in a good light.
Perhaps this interview was geared to an audience who does not follow the market as closely as us. She made it sound too simple to understand.
I still question why she refers to our economy as already being in a recession. How can it be over before it started... I thought we need two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP. Have we had that already?
Maybe she uses a different definition. Or maybe my memory of Macro Economics is faded.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying she is right or wrong. Just adding that she has a pretty good record in calling market direction. Her indicators probably do read over bought and oversold conditions like most indicators, but something in there is pretty good at differentiating between a bull and bear market. ...So Far...
-ClappyTheHumbleClown
P.S. What do you think about the $SOX chart. Looks strong, but can it last?
Do you think the sector rotation into chips is just a head fake to allow the mutual funds to get out? |
