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Thanks for the compliment, but no one has become rich following my advice, including me. However, MK Rail was a subsidiary of MRN; as far as I know the whole thing goes to the bondholders as part of the deal, but I could be wrong. Assuming the merger goes through, WAS will have about 48 - 52 million shares (there are some options triggered at $12). Fluor, the market leader had about three times the sales of MRN, and its high was about $90, which would make MRN worth $30. Another way to value it is to look at MRN's high (when it was healthy) in the mid-30's; again accounting for the dilution that puts a price for MRN in the mid-20's. However, for all I know, MRN went bankrupt because too many companies were chasing too few dollars; if this happens to the new company, then it could easily decline in value again (which is why I want to see a few quarters of earnings). And, as I said, there is now a shareholder lawsuit (they want a say in the bankruptcy proceedings), which might at least slow things down. |
