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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks
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To: David Culver who started this subject3/26/2001 3:10:03 PM
From: stan_hughes  Read Replies (1) of 11633
 
Question re: NCF -

Trying to rationalize the recent price decline here in order to see if we have an opportunity or not.

I know NCF has a new issue pending which perhaps is being viewed as dilutive (e.g. like AY a month or so ago), but NCF has already had quite the haircut to reflect that (now CDN$5.50 after making a high of CDN$6.60 in February). I believe it is now the highest yielding trust of any size on a cash basis.

Notwithstanding the fact that sister company NAE adjusted their payout rate this winter, I find it difficult to believe that NCF would cut their distribution at this point as certain rumor mongers are suggesting elsewhere. It would make little sense to greet investors in their new issue with a cut anytime soon (if at all), and secondly, neither the current cash flow nor the balance sheet indicate any need for a distribution decrease. Yet the unit price continues to languish as if something bad is in the offing.

Maybe there's enough people in NCF that are spooked by this rumor to drive it down? Maybe the dual listing in the US is making NCF suffer more of a downside reaction to the lousy market than its "listed Canada only" brethren? I wish I knew the answer.

Does anyone have any concrete information as to what the problem might be here, perceived or real?
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