I need a lot of help in getting this mess of companies and viability of offerings figured out: Who are the experts around here about the critical juncture in the fixed wireless technology battle? Here is a little about what I know and what I can't figure out:
HYBR, BRZE and VYYO have been "leaders" (everyone who has sold anything is a leader, right?) in early rollouts of fixed wireless systems. These systems use a variety of underlying technologies.
While initially successful in early rollouts among third world countries and even a few major carriers such as FON, the business has stalled dramatically as Sprint, Worldcom and others reassess their plans. FON, WCOM and others have announced that they are evaluating and will require "2nd generation" fixed wireless systems for future deployments. The message I get from these announcements, conference calls and my own discussions with firms is that 2nd generation systems include true non-line-of-sight, VOIP, and increased ease of installation. HYBR has said that they will have Near LOS soon but I doubt that this qualifies as true NLOS. HYBR has not announced VOIP yet as far as I know. VYYO claims to have VOIP but they have similar near LOS as HYBR.
In the other technology camp are several companies that have been developing OFDM based systems, which claim true NLOS, VOIP (not dependent on the specific underlying transport technologies) and a lower cost per CPE (customer premises equipment) installation. The HYBR/VYYO etc. camp claim that OFDM is much more expensive than their systems. VYYO’s VP of strategic planning recently told me that Cisco's OFDM system cost about $1,100 per CPE. NextNet, Cisco, and IoSpan disputed that bash vigorously. NextNet claims that their system has completed recent field trials in Olympia, Washington with flying colors. In fact, they claim that they chose the Olympia region’s geography in order to demonstrate their system’s ability to deliver over 90% coverage in the most difficult environments. I live in Seattle, which is almost as bad as Olympia – I can attest to the difficulty of the terrain and weather conditions. Breeze also claims to have performed a successful field trial of their new OFDM system. Both BRZE and NextNet’s systems have a desk/shelf mountable modem/transponder unit so that an antenna does not need to be installed outside the building. NextNet claims that their system will cost about $300 when initially in mass production as early as the 1st quarter of next year. They claim that the price will drop to around $100 per CPE about 4-5 years into mass production. They also claim the system is entirely user installable and therefore eliminates the need for a costly service call for installation – a savings of about $150-$200 per install and more if additional visits are necessary. The installation of the NextNet CPE unit was described to me as such: the unit is taken out of the box and plugged into the PC’s network connector or USB port. There are three LEDs on the top of the unit, which sits on the PC’s desk or shelf near it. The unit is rotated so that more LEDs turn green, indicating that the best signal strength has been achieved. Then the user installs the menu driven software driver and that’s it – about as easy as installing a printer. Breezecom claims much the same for the ease of installation and design of their CPE unit although I haven’t talked with them or seen any statements about the expected price per CPE. I know less about IoSpan except that they don’t plan to have a system into field trials until toward the end of the year. Cisco claims to have entered field trials but frankly I have not updated my knowledge on where they are at because I see them as a diluted play on the growth in this sector and also troubled by problems in the rest of their business.
In partial answer to eh cost dispute about OFDM, NextNet claims that it is less expensive by virtue of the lower installation cost and combined modem/transponder unit architecture (single power supply, no need for ruggedized, weather resistant external antenna and enclosure. No need for shielded wiring back into the building or drilling into walls etc.). Similar claims should be able to be made by BRZE. Nextnet said that their system is also cheaper by virtue of the fact that they are using their own custom DSP unit which can be mass produced at a low cost. VYYO and HYBR have bashed OFDM as being just a theoretically elegant dream but too complex to be driven down to a “real world” application of technology. VYYO’s V.P. said that OFDM was not practical because it was too compute intensive so that it would require a “much too expensive processor” (sic DSP). I know that VYYO and HYBR use mostly off the shelf communications chips from the darling telecom chip providers. The trouble with that approach is that the off-the-shelf communications DSPs are still expensive for mass market consumer products. If NextNet and others have their own specialized OFDM DPS, then it is reasonable that this might indeed lead to lower system costs. At least that’s what might be the case but I don’t have any way to confirm this because it is internal to Nextnet.
My challenge to this fine group of brilliant minds is to help me to filter out the claims and counter claims from these various players and determine if OFDM is as far along as it is recently claimed to be. If OFDM is nearing commercial viability and either one or more of BRZE, Cisco, or NextNet can meet their claims regarding system reach, ease of installation and low total cost per CPE, then this will pose a huge opportunity for anyone who can get a jump on the market. On the other hand, if this is true or not and you own one of the “other technology” companies, then your profits will be determined by the success or failure of these apparently much more capable and cost effective OFDM based systems. Maybe we can get a jump on the highly over-paid analysts and make out year as we buy the “next big thing”.
Intelligent, or just well intentioned comments are welcomed. |
