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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks

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To: trustmanic who wrote (837)	3/27/2001 3:27:37 AM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Read Replies (1) of 11633

Please refer to my past posting ( on NCD.UN now SDT.UN ) Posting # 399 The problem with those analysts or firms which make recommendations is that they make them after much of the gains have already been made. AFTER THE FACT. Where were their recommendations. When NCD's warrants were trading between $0.04 and $0.10 cents. They ultimately hit a high of $0.38. As I stated in my past posting ( # 399 ) I accumulated quite a lot. Sold some in the mid $0.20's some in the mid $0.30's. The remainder converted to the units at a price of $3.51 Now as to whether they are a buy, hold or sell? From the data available and using a price of $3.51. The shares have already appreciated more than 20%. If as I have done you accumulated some units earlier in 99 or early 2000. You could have bought at prices of $3.30 or lower. Add to that an income yield of 12% +. If one thinks he can buy these now and generate returns to match these of the past. He is fooling himself. Any capital appreciation. Increase in share price. Should be minimal. Unless of course the advisors out there are successful at pumping past returns to unsuspecting investors. As was the case when the majority of income trusts first came out. As all can remember when the bulk of these trusts first came out they were peddled to seniors and the like. With their high returns. No one bothered to tell them that the unit values could fall. And fall they did after oil prices tumbled. So if your looking for big gains in unit price. Probably not.. If you want a good yield and near term price stability then buy. Notice I say near term. Longer term may mean you are buying at high end of their trading range. There is a chance that prices could rise due to (1) pumping by advisors as mentioned earlier. Also could rise if (2) the overall stock market continues to stay flat or deteriorates further. The herd will flow the money to the best performing area at the time. ( They'll also leave it at the first signs it is faltering ). If either of those events ( 1 or 2 ) should occur. To me that would mean at least a hold (stop accumulating) or at most a sell condition. I have been in these income trusts since they first came out way back in '87. (ERF , PGF, and REF). The majority of trusts came out I believe in '97. For the first few years I accumulated. Bought into others along the way and accumulated them as well. Up until the point when they first were being targetted to seniors for their yields. Held off accumulating during this period. Choosing to take the income and waiting for the fall out. For unit prices to collapse. Once that was over began accumulating again. Had a strong feeling these would recover nicely. And they did. These trusts are an excellent investment vehicle. If played right they can make you very wealthy. If played wrong they can make you poor. As was the sad fact that many seniors found out the hard way. Came into contact with a few in a variety of newsgroups over the years. Many were scared into selling and took real substantial losses. Hope this helps! All the best

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