Claude,
I would place the following statement: "There are no regulatory impediments to implementing cdma2000 in 3G spectrum ... although there certainly are time to market issues with cdma2000 in 2GHZ spectrum that don't exist with GPRS." in the category of semi-truths. The fact that at least one operator in each country MUST implement UMTS pretty much guarantees its widespread adoption. >>
Not pretty much ... it absolutely guarantees it, although I guess the carriers could do what the Koreans did and stand steadfast in their resolve to not adopt the governments technology choice.
... and as you pointed out, at least one carrier must select UMTS. Notwithstanding this, The EU is wide open for any competitive IMT-2000 approved technology (and that would include EDGE (or cdma2000), but not necessarily GPRS, unless there is a loophole in the German regulations (in this particular instance).
<< This is delivering in spades the much needed 'network effect' any new std needs to establish itself. Would be interested in your take on that. >>
I guess regulations could be considered a 'network effect'. On the other hand new standards do not require regulations to establish themselves, when the regulations specifically do not prohibit them.
Armed with QUALCOMM's whitepaper that "proves" the cost advantage of cdma2000, members of QUALCOMM's value chain have the opportunity to justify a cdma2000 implementation in Europe. Contracts for only about 50% of the licenses granted, or about to be granted, have been awarded, so the opportunity exists. For starters, CDG just needs to line up one itsy bitsy carrier, or maybe a trophy one.
I have already expressed my point of view that such an implementation must "deal with issues of interoperability or voice and data roaming requisite for a European carrier" and that "fast & efficient without other redeeming characteristics just doesn't quite come remotely close to hacking it".
- Eric - |
