3G may be "lemmings over a cliff"
Former British Telecom exec challenges 3G hype
By Heather Peacocke, FTMarketWatch.com 1:28:00 PM BST Mar 27, 2001
LONDON (FTMW) - It might be a case of all talk and no action when it comes to third generation (3G) mobile phones.
The former head of 3G development at British Telecom, [UK:BTA] Peter Cochrane, told BBC television's Money Programme that the much hyped next generation of cellular phones may never exist.
The comments from this high profile industry insider with such an intimate knowledge of how 3G is developing darkens the clouds over the growth of the new technology, which is seen as crucial to the outlook for the world's mobile telecoms groups and mobile equipment makers.
Cochrane blamed the high cost of 3G licences for which European telecoms operators spent about €140 billion last year plus their need to construct 3G networks, which is estimated to cost many billion more.
Cochrane said some companies may collapse under the financial strain.
"Make no mistake about it, this is a fairly serious game of poker. Some people are betting everything on this technology," he told the Money Programme, which is due to broadcast on BBC 2 on Wednesday at 7.30pm.
"If they can't find a solution, I think we will see companies collapse."
'Madness'
Professor Cochrane, who was responsible for BT's 3G research programme until November 2000, said the auction process was "a really good study in madness".
"It was a bit like lemmings going over the edge of a cliff," he said.
Orange [UK:OGE] [FR:007919], BT [US:BTY], Vodafone [UK:VOD] and the Deutsche Telekom [DE:555750] owned One 2 One and the Hutchison Whampoa [US:HUWHY] consortium paid a combined £22.5 billion last April to buy the five U.K. licences.
However, it is estimated that 28,000 new masts and base stations will be needed in the U.K. to run the networks, the BBC reported.
"I think Europe has shot itself in the foot, and certainly the UK has, because I don't think we are going to see 3G," Cochrane said.
Third-generation mobile phones are expected to offer broadband services, allowing high-speed data transmission and providing Internet and video links
ftmarketwatch.com{3CBDD5CE-5FC6-4022-98FB-7535EA348051}&source=moreover1 |
