Consensus EPS estimates for Loral are a lot worse than I think reasonable.
According to First Call, Loral is expected to lose per share: $0.42 in Q1'01, $0.60 in Q2, and $1.45 for FY01 presumably based on the current 300M odd common shares.
This seems pretty pessimistic.
If SS/L returns to historically typical levels of revs and ebitda, 275M$, and 20M$, respectively, and the GEO SAT operating businesses continue any reasonable growth, it seems to me reported EBITDA in Q1'01 should be about 60M$ and in FY01 about 260M$.
Assuming negligible development costs, constant levels of depreciation and corporate expenses, and a 10% interest cost on its net debt, I get EPS losses per share of $0.23 in Q1 and $0.65 for FY01, again, assuming no conversion of the preferred.
What am I missing? |
