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Sorry to come back to the AGPH love-fest. Over the weekend, I spoke to some contacts who tell me that as of last week, there is an internal "investigation" going on at AGPH related to what I had previously stated - that AGPH overstates the claims of Viracept in their advertising. I understand that there are several scientists within Agouron who are now, more seriously listening to job offers from other biotech firms. I for one, am surprised that the situation has progressed this far. I would have expected that the first FDA letter scolding Agouron would have given them a clue, but as I understand - a SECOND letter may be coming in the next 10 days. I place the odds of this at 80%. I am fortunate that people in the biotech community trust me to tell me things. In all sincerity, I wish that Viracept were a cure for HIV, but it isn't. On a second note, I'd like to point out that the sell-side analysts seem only to report positive news for Agouron, yet there has been no mention of Thymidylate Synthase for solid tumors and how it is going in trials, although in private conversations, I've learned that it's a flop, it is curious that nobody is putting that in print. If I prove to be correct about the second warning from the FDA, then perhaps you will all realize that all I'm doing is stating what I believe to be the truth - not hysterical ramblings. In closing, I agree that Viracept sales are very good, that Crix is losing share, but that is not a reason to buy AGPH. Actually, the biggest threat to Merck is not Agouron, but the Vertex/Glaxo drug which is likely to be on the market in 1998. The Vertex drug has a better side effect and dosing regimen than Crix or Viracept, and is a serious threat to Agouron also. The market cap of $1 billion for Vertex shows that "the street" feels the same way I do. Alanex, the private company that Agouron bought, tried to go public last year, nobody wanted to buy it. Why? Hopefully, we can have a civilized discussion of these topics. BTW, my short was covered at lower prices, money was made. |
