Man, Pravin, our brains must be connected or something. I added some more April 30 Intel puts at $2. While I am "long" AMD much more than I am short Intel, I'd love to gave some free cash available for more AMD if the semis tank again.
I expect AMD will test 27 again in the near future. That's the 200 day m.a., and this is only the third day we've closed above it since last September (at about 30 on the way down to 13.56).
Albert sent me a report on Intel. Here's how Goldman Sachs justifies their price target for Intel, 36:
* Our $36 price target is based on a multiple of 9.0X estimated calendar
2001 sales, close to double the 1994-1998 average. We get to the 9.0x
target P/S multiple by drawing a line through the rising valuation
troughs and seeing where it lands today. The 9.0X target is 58% of the
2000 peak.
In other words, they are taking a period when Intel totally dominated the MP market, from '94 to '98, and saying that Intel should be worth twice as much per dollar of sales as then, because they found an upwards trendline while the NASDAQ was exploding 500%!
The Price to Sales ratio of Intel has gone up, therefore, damn past history, it must be right. In fact, lets extrapolate it forward and that way, Intel sales can drop and the price should still go up! They do this extrapolation while Intel's gross margin has deflated to the same level of AMD, they've lost market share, will have negative cash flow for Q1 and all of 2001, and their topline product isn't selling. What a POS. (OK terminology for a non-poster)
Petz
Petz |
