Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.62

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (44607)	3/27/2001 5:12:02 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Katherine, I don't see a July bottom as all that grim. Rather it would represent a garden variety cycle. Seasonal factors would tend to prevent bookings from bottoming before July. If OTOH the bottom was in fact reached in December 2000, it would be one of the shortest downcycles on record. Bookings are still at quite high levels relative to other troughs. And valuations (P/S, P/B) are quite high as well. Considering the state of the economy and end user demand for cell phones, PCs, and the like, I think a July trough would be quite an optimistic scenario. But you know this industry far better than I. What is your likeliest (as opposed to rosiest) scenario? Sam

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