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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam
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To: Boplicity who wrote (12009)3/27/2001 6:25:58 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) of 13572
 
Bo,

I try to be forward looking and certainly don't consider myself to be anything of a Luddite. However, Bill Gates, among others, makes a very valid point about the billions who've never made a phone call. Many of these people exist on less than $1 per day. For them, food, shelter and basic medical necessities are just about all the budget can afford. I see the situation with HIV medicines in South Africa to be a harbinger of the way that technology will spread into the Third World. Only by means of generic and cheap substitutes for the high priced and profitable versions of technology available in the First World. So, even should the Internet spread to the hinterlands of Africa and Asia (and don't get me wrong, the sooner the better as far as I'm concerned) I don't see this spread of the technology to provide profits for the coterie of players that we follow in the US stock market. More likely, some clone systems come out of China or possibly the old Soviet bloc and undercut the Western telecom infrastructure vendors. Much as the mobo and chip foundry business has migrated to Taiwan.

I was quite surprised by the NT announcement. Apparently Roth and Chandran haven't come to grips with the U of Michigan survey telling us all is now well with the consumer. Frankly, I'm almost ready to consider going long on NT. I may be somewhat skeptical about the immediate prospects for recovery in telecom capex, but I don't feel that we are driving off a cliff here. Just a pause to refresh us.
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