Verizon's 3G plans upset Vodafone
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an entertaining report....
If true, I suspect Vodafone's concerns erupted before Tuesday.
If true, I suspect Vodafone's concerns erupted before the March 19th contract announcement with Lucent.
If true, I suspect Verizon committed to contracts fully cognizant that Vodafone was upset.
If true, Verizon blew off its partner with a promise to consider UMTS in 2 or 3 years...
"A decision was unlikely for two or three years, it said, given the pace of technology change in the wireless industry. "Anyone that commits this far in advance is asking for trouble," it added."
Translation --- UMTS won't be viable till 2003 or 2004 - we'll consider it then. Anyone who commits to it sooner is stupid.
And by then, there will no doubt be multimode chips rendering the issue moot.
If Verizon was concerned with Vodafone's preference regarding 3G flavors, would it have announced it's upgrade path and signed 5 billion in contracts with Q's closest value chain member?
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But does this have anything to do with Vodafone concerns with international roaming? (It's doubtful.)
Might actions betray a lapse in confidence on the part of gsm guild members regarding the historic inevitability of UMTS supremacy?
We earlier had silly statements by Nokia. Statements designed to bring comfort to guild carriers committed to a ponderous transition to 3G, and an inferior 2.5G solution for the protracted future. And to Cingular, who now proposes a painful EDGE route to UMTS. All facing competition with 1x in the very near future.
Now we have the appearance of Vodafone pressuring Verizon to depart from its cdma2000 path.
Is cdma2000 growing too strong in the US for the guild's comfort? Guild competitors - T and Cingular - would have a far easier row to hoe if the largest mobile carrier - Verizon - were neutralized. Better if there were only a few smaller US carriers using 1x ---- providing an all to lucid comparison of competing technologies and services.
I think these actions by guild members are most telling. Is there growing concern within the guild that they could lose control of the course of events - that their well scripted plans might unravel?
Asia isn't following script, as Korea, while giving lip service to wCDMA, continues along a 1x upgrade path. Even the once lowly cdma2000 3G license appears to have regained some of its luster. An entirely unexpected CDMA network is poised to erupt in China - once thought exclusively guild property. And pesky China vendors seem intent on producing their own technology instead of buying from the guild. And how will these events influence decisions for upgrading China's gsm networks? Unlike Europe, the guild cannot force its will in China. What vested interest has China to wait for UMTS - in order to remain dependent on the guild for 3G as it has for 2G?
In the US, guild vendors will clearly compete from an inferior position.
Guild carriers will clearly provide inferior technology and services globally for the next few years - and the prospect of losing their leadership position and resultant ability to control technology appears more likely than before 3G UMTS network projections receded into the future - and before gprs fantasies failed to face reality.
Is there any doubt why Vodafone, guild leader, might be motivated to try and dim the cdma candle in the US? Is there any doubt why the guild would seek to marginalize 1x to the greatest extent possible?
But what would Vodafone have Verizon do?
A gsm overlay to its network?
Not upgrage beyond 95a while waiting for UMTS?
Upgrading to 1x is much like getting pregnant, in that you can't be a little bit pregnant. Going 1x is embarking on a smooth 3G progression. You can't be a little bit 1x, either.
Will Vodafone "launch a bid for control of the company" in order to quash 1x in the US? In these cash strapped times? How would US regulators feel about foreign ownership of the largest US mobile carrier? Especially after Europe denied the WCOM/FON merger? Verizon is no Voicestream.
This episode, if true, has nothing to do with roaming.
This episode, if true, betray's nervous sweat on the guild's collective brow. |
