The problem is that AMD has already taken themselves out of the high cost processor race. Look at the highest price AMD is charging for any processor.
Intel can ramp production at an individual fab faster than AMD. But Intel is making the transition to 0.13-microns, copper interconnects, and 12" wafers all in one fell swoop. If they pull it off and get a 12" wafer fab fully ramped by Q1 2002, AMD is in trouble, at least temporarily. But I don't see Intel pulling it off. They had a hard enough time ramping 0.18-microns with 8" wafers, aluminum interconnects, and what was basically a mature core.
Another problem that I see is that, while 0.13-micron will provide Intel with mobile processors that are competitive with mobile Palomino processors, it will not give them enough of an edge to keep AMD's mobile assault at bay.
OTOH, by the time Ireland ramps, Intel will be in a position to push the P4 out in large quantities. I know, Intel claims 50% of their production will be P4 in 2002. But the way they are pushing back fab conversion, I just do not see this happening. Then, of course, there is the need to convince customers that P4 is the greatest thing since sliced bread. With 80% of the market being corporate buyers, do you honestly think Intel will be able to force the conversion to P4 as rapidly as they want? |
