re: discount cash model
This model works only if you can predict what the future income stream will be, with a good degree of certainty. Like the kind of stocks Buffet would buy. Insurance companies. Shoe manufacturers. He doesn't buy biotechs, precisely because he only buys companies whose profits are certain to increase over time, in a predictable and consistent manner.
OK, I'll grant that the present value of money IMNX has spent on R&D, is not zero. If the company was sold tomorrow, someone would pay something for it. But my point was, that the profits produced (in the future) by today's R&D spending, is impossible to know, even within a wide range. It could end up being huge. It could end up being zero. My analogy to a lottery ticket, IMO, comes close to the truth. Better than thinking of it as capex. |
