Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (4346)	3/28/2001 7:59:22 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (4) of 52237

Read some confusion on various threads as to why we rallied on the consumer confidence level being so high. Basically it is a "Is the glass half empty or half full" arguement. The high confidence level will indeed make AG a biut less aggressive in cutting the rates intra meeting but it was also one of the things that AG stressed in all his speeches over the last few months. If consumer confidence stays high, then they will spend money to get rid of the excess inventories and allow a faster recovery unlike Japan where they stuff thier money in a mattress leaving the US as their only customers. Kind of a bad thing though since consumer debt is at an alarming high. Basically the idea is get J6P to rack up more debt and keep spending so the businesses can get rid of inventory and start producing again to get earnings up. Friday's consumer earnings and spending should prove to be a doozy if everyone is still out screaming "charge it!" I was busy last night and unable to update the site until this morning. If you looked at any charts before this message, they were old charts. The charts are now updated as are the GLOBEX triggers. The warnings from PALM, NT, DIS etc are really killing futures and it looks like a nasty open is in store for us. I am now thinking that Heinz had a different cycle than I did as we are hitting my cycle turn now on the OEX and SPX thus his may have been a low and mine may be a high. I have to admit I am losing faith in my pop , drop and rally here. This may have been just a pop and drop for now since I don't have another cycle turn until 7 weeks out. I need to scan more charts but I am considering ditching all longs, and waiting this out. NASDAQ TRIN was OK yesterday so I was hoping for a genuine turn here and hoping for some rotation from the DOW to the NASDAQ as the DOW was due for a pullback after all the recent gains. I am not holding my breath though and with MU due to report any day now, there is a lot of risk. Our indicator is nearing a topping point and thus it adds to the potential turn down. The recent advance was also very narrow and focused in QCOM, MSFT, IBM etc. These companies have not warned yet and yet common sense says they shouldn't be immune to the slowdown. A hit on these stocks would really hurt the indexes. ...... Just running the charts again and noticing that many of the stocks that moved up the last few days were doing so on lighter volume and the mid bollinger band has halted the NDX advance. if we can't bounce quick to keep the ADX dropping and get back up to break through the mid band, we are in trouble. Note I now have the NASDAQ target much lower after adjusting the NASDAQ fib retrace lines. It is too early to say we are dead meat but it doesn't look good form a TA perspective. We need this retest to hold or else we will likely see the 1100 NDX level. Good Luck, Lee

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