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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (2598)3/28/2001 5:14:09 PM
From: MeDroogies  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Well, it's all in POV.
Agree on you comments regarding LE. But looking back at the opportunities he didn't take, it's more likely that they weren't the opportunities he hoped to see in the future (assuming he believed his own rhetoric), meaning anyone would like to hang on...even him. That he passed up those opportunities and took another means...what? That perhaps he felt it had peaked. Okay. But also that he could have expirations coming up. That perhaps he felt better opportunities were still ahead but should take something off the table. That perhaps a million things nobody knows. Nor is it worth speculating on.

I like your comment on house money, but really don't go in for it. Again, it's all about expectations. If I sit at the blackjack table and win $500, I am pleased at my luck. I don't consider the money mine, though, if I'm still playing the game. Plus, the enjoyment I have while playing the game carries a price, since it is entertainment. If that price means I lose the $500 (or more), then so be it. If I am tired, and walk away with the $500, then the game paid me to play it.
Investing carries better odds than gambling because research can prevent the "house" from taking your money. Still, it is an odds-related situation - because that is what creates gains and losses. Therefore, to risk the losses, you have to carry a sense of enjoyment with the act of investing itself. I enjoy the research, and I enjoy the feelings of euphoria when I do well, but not so much the disgust at doing poorly. Not because I was lucky or unlucky (as at the blackjack table), but because I either did good homework or bad homework. The difference between investing and gambling is that in gambling, there is very little you gain by learning from mistakes. The odds are still against you. Not so in investing.

As for extremes...I once wrote a paper on the difference between anarchy, totalitarianism and the defence of democracy. Anarchy and totalitarianism are on opposite ends of the extreme spectrum...but are very similar in the sense that they carry few internal contradictions. Democracy is hopelessly embroiled in contradiction, but these contradictions are what keep it healthy as they promote debate and differentiation. As a result, it is easy to see why anarchy and totalitarianism are often frowned upon as a means of rule while democracy tends to thrive.
In the study of complexity, there are other examples I could toss your way if you prefer a mathematical or geometric equivalent.

As for the wealthy, I think it's a matter of both. They not only expect opportunity...but they are frequently just given it. You only expect something if it is frequently given to you. Pavlov....
What makes it galling is when it isn't given to them, many of the very wealthy take offense.
My father is what I would call among the very wealthy. But you'd never know it. Sure, he's got the nice house, nice car and the beautiful wife (not my mom). But he acts like a normal guy, doesn't expect favors, and worked damn hard to get what he has (he was a surgeon). He hasn't given any of his kids anything, except to pay for an education. He loaned me my first down payment (which I repaid this year...2 1/2 times what he loaned based on current value) rather than give it to me. He's got friends, though, who are unbearable in their manner. I'm not sure they are his friends so much as they are people he works with or lives near and likes to maintain civil relations with. Still, it's an interesting mix.
What's really funny is when I visit my mother. She is dirt poor. Seriously dirt poor. But she lives in a community that caters to the very wealthy, an exclusive community, with a country club. Part of the benefit of owning a home there (from my step father's mother...she was a bond trader and they inherited the house...now into its second mortgage) is having access to the country club. Whenever I visit, I play a round of golf up there. Basically, they don't like to see me. While I have full rights to be there, I'm not "their type" and have been made to feel very uncomfortable while playing there. They sit at the bar and share their information, but clam up when I walk in. I know because I am friendly with the help at the club, and they tell me what goes on. They like the fact that there are some people who aren't so stuck on themselves that they can hang out at closing time and have a shot or two with the help.

Thanks for the comments....
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