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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
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To: t2 who wrote (19801)3/28/2001 7:32:12 PM
From: larry  Read Replies (1) of 24042
 
t2,

I sold 50 contracts of ORCL 12 1/2 puts about a week and a half ago. WIll look for SUNW 12 1/2 puts to sell (not listed yet). Hold 20 contracts of April JDSU 17 1/2 puts I bought at 3/8. I like SUNW and ORCL around my target price and believe that they can at least double within the next 2-3 years. If they can get there too quick, I will sell. Also like EMC at low 20s.

Both CSCO and JDSU are dangerous at current levels. I think that CSCO will be lucky to earn 20-25 cents (true earnings) within the next 4 quarters. JDSU's target earning number will have to come down at least 25-35% for the next two years from the current first call level. So according to my number, I gave JDSU 15 as target price, which still give the issue a very pricey 7:1 or higher P/S ratio. CSCO at 14 might still be too pricey for lots of value investors, especially when no one knows how long it will take for them to make 41 cents again. MSFT, INTC, and IBM are way overvalued and sooner or later they will get their shares of haircut.

NAZ won't bottom out until it hits 1400. I think that from here it will take at least 2 more quarters for the NAZ to reach that level and then we will have a bear market rally that can at least last a while (a couple of quarters), and from there, we can go either way depending on whether we out of the recession and how serious the recession is.

larry
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