Tom and anyone else that's reading,
Sorry, this is kind of a long rant, but I think is worth reading.
First and foremost I think Voltaire has a terrible record this past year and no one should listen to him.
That's not the point though. I'm kind of sick of everyone slamming him.
In my mind, it's like locking up the drug dealers and not addressing the drug users. The real problem is the people that listen to him.
We all develop a track record with our history on SI. I wasn't a member during the hey days of the bull market, but I must say Voltaire must have had one hell of a track record to develop the following he has. In a way, he's like Abby Cohen, all he knew how to do was say "buy buy buy" and that worked for a decade. He's clearly no gooroo by any means, but that's not the point.
I've noticed that people that laughed at me when I said Crisco in single digits when it was at $70 and Naz at 500-700 when it was at 3000-4000. Now they don't laugh. I've even noticed some of the same posters that mocked me 6 months ago are defending my views now and saying I've been right for a while and tell others not to slam me. Also, I've got some interesting PM's.
When Crisco hits single digits and the Naz hits 700, will I be a gooroo? Will I develop a following? Maybe, I'm not sure. Does that mean people should follow my advice? Hell no, past performance is no gaurantee of future performance. As I've read in many history books, the people that make the biggest gains in bull/bear runs tend to have terrible advice as soon as people notice them. It's the cycle of investment fads. No one listens to you until you've had your run, but by then you're luck has likely run out. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GAURANTEE FUTURE PERFORMANCE!!
There's about 10 "gooroos" on SI that I dare not miss a post from. If they're selling networkers or semi's, do I do the same? Hell no. I make my own damn decisions and have no one to blame but the guy in the mirror.
The point is that the problem is the guy in the mirror, not the gooroo. There's no point in slamming the gooroo, that's just hindsight. Voltaire has just done what he's done for several years successfully, but happens to be wrong this time. When he started he was likely laughed at like me. The longer you are right, the more willing the sheep are to listen. Apparently you and a few others took the time to understand the markets themselves and stopped listening to him. I suggest talking to those you know personally, but not waste much time on the others that don't want to listen. I've begged all my relatives to get out of the market for months, but only successful in getting a few people to sell covered calls which have expired worthless. If that's all we can do with people we love what does this say? It says people select what they want to believe. We all only have ourselves to blame.
That said, I hope if we do hit the laughable targets I've suggested for months that I don't get the "gooroo" status. When I go long Crisco, I hope others that have been following that thread don't follow along because that's no gaurantee it doesn't get halved again. I was right it was going down, but that is no gaurantee I know when it turns. I just covered half my short at $19 and it went to $15.50 in a few days. For someone following the thread for 6 months when I started building my short at $50-70, they might be stunned I was so resiliant and didn't cover earlier and then decided to put some faith in my call. THIS IS THEIR CHOICE AND NOT MINE. Buffet never caught the tech run and I'd consider him the ultimate "gooroo". I hope I don't follow the same fate of Meeker, Blogett, Cohen, or Voltaire and end up dead wrong at some point. The reality is it will likely happen and anyone that is successful for a long period of time and has a documented past (such as SI) will develop a following. People make their own choices and if anyone out there has put their faith in my calls because I have been one of the few fairly accurate over the past 6 months is doing it at their own risk. If I'm wrong, don't f*cking blame it on me. In my VERY humble opinion, Voltaire deserves the same.
chic |
