max,
We are approaching the end of quarter, which means AMD had another quarter to ramp the production. The next quarter, there will be and extra 1+ million of Athlons to absorb. There may be 4.75 million Dresden Athlons available for sale throughout the Q2. If the total market is 40 million chips, Athlon alone will represent 12% marketshare.
To move this many processors, to gain possibly as much as additional 5% of marketshare during next quarter, AMD has to price the CPUs to sell. All new Athlon CPUs are no worse than 1 GHz, which lists for $160 on that web site. Suppose AMD derives only $130 from 1 GHz chips, and say $200 from 1.3 GHz, this represents a great ASP. If Athlon ASP comes in at about $150, the earnings will be great.
Anyway, AMD's production capacity in Q2 will be as I said, up to 4.75 million Thunderbirds (Palominos) in Dresden and anywhere anywhere from 3 to 6 million Durons in Austin. Even though everyone more or less gave up on Jerry's plan to achieve 30% market share by the end of 2001, theoretically, it is possible. 12 million out of 40 million is exactly 30%.
I hope Joe doesn't find out that I used his account.
niceguy767 |
