Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (KKD) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (KKD)

KKD 21.00

0.0%

Aug 4 5:00 PM EST

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To: Jon Khymn who wrote (696)	3/29/2001 8:58:51 AM
From: Kevin Podsiadlik	of 1001

To my surprise, more stocks actually fell during 2 to 6 weeks PRIOR to the lock up expiration date than after the lock up date. That doesn't surprise me so much, but what I'd like to see is a correlation between falling before the lock up and falling after it. My gut feeling is that if a stock does not fall in the weeks prior to lockup (as this one has not) it is far more likely to fall after the lockup expiration than if it had fallen going into expiration. The reason for that would be that a falling stock price into expiration often reflects shorts coming in in anticipation, and then covering into the expiration event itself. Since we have not had that effect (by design, it seems), the shorting will only be able to begin in earnest after the lockup ends and the insider selling begins. In my estimation there is shortly going to be more than enough insider selling to allow every single currently short-sold share to be covered if so desired. When you have a situation like that there's almost no way for the stock to rise.

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