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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Stoctrash who wrote (37627)3/29/2001 9:19:51 AM
From: Peace  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Hi FredE,

To answer your economy question - How did the economy look in 3/2000 when the nasdaq peaked. It wasnt until the end of the 3rd quarter that the tech slowdown became apparant. The market is a forward discounting mechanism. Like you said ignore jobless claims today its old data, I say the same ignore those layoff news its old data too. What is important is what the data will look like 6 months from now. The market has already discounted bad news for the next 2 qtrs. So, the real question is will there be a recovery by the 4th qtr of 2001 or not. If the answer is yes then this bear market will run out of gas soon. If the answer is no then the bear will have more time to live. The market is looking beyond the next 2 quarters. If a company lowers guidance for the next qtr it doesnt matter. It is when Cisco says no turnaround for at least 3 qtrs it is negative. The biggest problem is most tech companys are providing no guidance for the year as they themselves are not sure when things will look up. If you go by Greenspan and company then you should be bullish. Obviously the market has disagreed with them so far and the market is the final judge in the end. IMO, if one is trading then one should focus on charts and not fundamentals, on the other hand if one is investing for the long term then this is one of the best buying opportunity among the many past downturns.

Peace
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