re: Strategis on Mobile Wireless Subscriber Growth
<< Patience Eric patience >>
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
BTW: The Strategis crystal ball gazing numbers I referred to are in a bar chart in this downloadable document that accomponied a Strategis conference call a few weeks back:
strategisgroup.com
There is no "raw data" I had to use a modified Maurice Winn trick and measure the bars with a straight edge. I did it from printout with a squared straight edge rather than on the monitor.
Strategis projects 937,630 subs end of 2001.
Strategis projects 1,627,500 subs end of 2007.
Their (approximate) estimates of subs by technology end of 2007 is:
* GSM 710,000 Million
* GPRS 230,000 Million
* EDGE 25,000 Million
* WCDMA 255,000 Million
* cdmaOne 195,000 Million
* CDMA 1x 50,000 Million
* TDMA 90,000 Million
* PDC 35,000 Million
* PHS 5 Million
* Analog 15,000 Million
My Total: 1,610,000 Billion
Strategis 1,627,500 Billion
Variance 17,500 Billion
mQ would probably bend the straight edge more. <g>
As you can see, they are looking at GPRS takeup much differently than ARC, and they are very conservative on 3G cdma2000 takeup (actual data users).
<< If Q was going to lose, they would have lost already, period >>
The game is still wide open. Decisions made over next 18 months will have a lot to say about where this all ends up. China (and takeup of CDMA could be a big determining factor). Latin America ... potential flips ... also.
Do you know if Telstra in Australia has announced technology choice for the new recently awarded spectrum yet?
Here is a press release about the referenced Strategis report:
>> 3G Wireless Infrastructure Equipment Revenues to Surpass 2G by 2003
The Strategis Group
March 1, 2001
Global 2.5 & 3G network build-out revenues will surpass revenues for 2G build-outs in 2003, reflecting the global shift toward next generation technologies, according to a new study by The Strategis Group. The study, Global Next Generation Wireless Technology and Infrastructure Forecasts, states that WCDMA will be the global technology of choice, especially in Europe and Asia as they migrate from 2G to 3G. Operators choosing WCDMA will do so based on two key criteria: global roaming and easier migration to 4G. In the U.S, The Strategis Group says that although CDMA will remain the dominant technology, several operators have yet to announce a firm decision on a technology choice for their 3rd generation networks.
The GSM platform, which includes GSM, GPRS, EDGE and WCDMA, will grow to make up over 70% of all base stations worldwide in 2007 compared to around 63% today. WCDMA alone will account for 30% of all base stations in 2007. 1xRTT and 3xRTT/1xEV solutions will have the largest presence in North America and Latin America. Together, these two regions will account for 53% of the world’s infrastructure rollout for these technologies.
Several of the planned 3G launches are scheduled for the same year - 2002. "The key concern over the short term is whether infrastructure suppliers can match demand for the equipment," states Christine Stasikowski, senior analyst with The Strategis Group. "Vendors will therefore need to have production and personnel strategies in place today in order to meet the equipment demands that we expect to see in a few years." Global Next Generation Wireless Technology and Infrastructure Forecasts points to key strategies vendors may choose to adopt, and also profiles alternative technologies for capacity constrained networks. <<
- Eric - |
