PLDs, DRAMs, and standard cell chips get clobbered in downturn, says report
By J. Robert Lineback
Semiconductor Business News
(03/29/01 13:53 p.m. PST)
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- What ails the chip industry--specifically?
Market researcher IC Insights Inc. here said an analysis of chip sales in January vs. October shows DRAMs, MOS standard cell designs, and programmable logic getting hit the hardest out of nine IC product categories. Standard cell ICs and programmable logic devices (PLDs) were hit by both severe weakness in demand and inventory burn offs by customers, said the research firm.
Digital signal processors (DSPs), MOS special purpose logic, and flash memory were all relatively stable in terms of revenues in January compared to October, according to IC Insights' analysis of January vs. October 2000.
January and October are both first months in a calendar quarter, and IC Insights believes a comparison of those two months underscores the severity of the current semiconductor downturn and the burn off of inventories. A comparison of January 2001 and January 2000 shows less of a decline (see table below).
Semiconductor revenues in January totaled $13.7 billion, which was 18% lower than industry sales in October, said IC Insights. Unit shipments were off 20% in January at 25.4 billion devices vs. October's chip volumes. However, average selling prices for semiconductors were stable, up 2% in January compared to October 2000, according to the analysis by IC Insights.
"The total IC market weakness in January was a direct result of IC unit volume changes," said IC Insights in an update on industry conditions. "The January 2001 comparison with both January 2000 and October 2000 shows flat IC average selling prices. The situation is indicative of an IC industry being driven more by inventory adjustments than overcapacity."
In DRAMs, for example, the problem isn't related to an excessive buildup of capacity. "In general, DRAM producers were not as aggressive in adding capacity in the current cycle as compared to the 1993-1995 time period," said the IC Insights report. "However, it appears that the slow PC market has caused an excess situation that in turn has led to a price war."
Of the nine major IC product categories, six registered double-digit declines in revenue when January was compared to October, while seven IC product segments suffered double-digit unit volume declines, according to IC Insights' analysis.
January vs. October chip markets
Product category January 2001 vs. January 2000 vs. October Early 2001 environment
Analog IC $2.23 billion
2.7 billion units +10%
-1% -17%
-18% Inventory burn
Microprocessor $2.05 billion
22 million units -6%
-13% -12%
-18% Inventory burn; pricing surge
Microcontroller $878 million
420 million units -2%
+11% -17%
-10% Inventory adjustment;
weak pricing
DSP $372 million
59 million units -4%
+7% -7%
-6% Relatively stable
Std cell $464 million
45 million units -17%
-38% -39%
-59% Severe weakness;
inventory burn
PLD $403 million
35 million units +11%
-16% -31%
-24% Severe weakness;
inventory burn
MOS special purpose $894 million
298 million units +41%
+1% -2%
-23% Inventory burn
DRAM $1.43 billion
271 million units -32%
-3% -35%
0% No inventory burn;
price war
Flash $826 million
124 million units +27%
-7% -6%
-14% Inventory adjustments
Total ICs $11.64 billion
5.72 billion units -3%
-3% -19%
-19% Inventory burn;
stable pricing
Discrete & Opto $1.98 billion
19.54 billion units -9%
-4% -18%
-20% Inventory burn
Total semiconductor $13.69 billion
25.41 billion units -1%
-3% -18%
-20% Inventory burn;
pricing stable
IC Insights' March update |
