Firms vow to speed data to cell phones
But critics ask when true '3G' will arrive and if public needs it
By Jennifer Davies
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
March 29, 2001
The battle over third-generation wireless technology continues as telecommunications companies struggle to deliver on their promises of souped-up wireless networks that bring the power of the Internet to cell phones.
The war of words over 3G -- as the next-generation wireless technology is called -- was no more evident than last week at the Cellular Telecommunications and Internet trade show in Las Vegas.
All ilks of wireless companies paraded their new-wave wireless wares in an effort to whet people's appetite for the wonders of 3G. But while 3G was the buzzword of the show, some cracks in its armor became evident as many queried when the elusive 3G would be available.
"Once again, what is 3G?" Keith Shank, an Ericsson vice president for business management, asked at a panel discussion.
Questioning the merits of 3G would have been unthinkable at last year's CTIA show, when the hype surrounding the next-generation technology was in overdrive. Since then, the economic bubble has burst, and the heady rhetoric regarding 3G has been deflated.
Unrealistic expectations and billion-dollar investments in the airwaves needed for 3G have put added pressure on phone carriers, especially in Europe, to deliver some type of high-speed wireless data services.
Because of the hype, wireless companies now have to make good on their 3G promises, said Eddie Hold, a wireless analyst for Current Analysis.
"Last year was more of a 3G honeymoon," Hold said. "All that anyone had to say was that they were going to do it. Now they have to say how and when they are going to do it."
At last week's show, national wireless phone carriers Verizon, Cingular and Sprint detailed their so-called 3G rollout plans in the United States -- so-called because much of what is now passing for 3G is really more of a halfway step that industry types have dubbed "2.5G."
San Diego-based Qualcomm was the beneficiary of much of the rollout news, as both Verizon and Sprint will use Qualcomm's CDMA2000 high-speed wireless technology.
But not everyone agrees that the newly announced networks are truly 3G, even though that's how they're being billed.
In general, 3G networks are supposed to supply transmission speeds of at least 2 megabits per second, making video and music over cell phones a reality. Present wireless networks have speeds of 19.2 kilobits per second, making any video more of an homage to stilted robotics than a rich multimedia content experience.
The Verizon and Sprint "3G" networks based on Qualcomm's technology actually provide transmission speeds of 144 kilobits per second. Competing European networks will provide about 115 kilobits per second.
Nevertheless, Irwin Jacobs, Qualcomm founder and chief executive, scoffed at the idea that Sprint's and Verizon's networks are not true 3G offerings.
"Those that say it isn't 3G are just trying to compete," Jacobs said last week after a Qualcomm news conference.
Meanwhile, analyst Hold said the pressure to deliver has some wireless carriers dressing up 2.5G in 3G rhetoric.
"It seems 3G by any other name is 2.5G," Hold said.
Jane Zweig, an analyst with wireless research firm The Shosteck Group, said 3G networks in Europe are facing potential delays. Jacobs created a firestorm when he questioned the ambitious time frame of 3G rollouts because of problems with W-CDMA, or wide band code division multiple access, which is favored by European and Asian carriers.
Zweig said Qualcomm's CDMA2000 is the easiest road to 3G services. But does that mean Qualcomm is in the catbird seat as the whole world moves to 3G?
Not necessarily, she said.
Despite its technological advantage, Zweig said, Qualcomm might have a hard time persuading the European carriers to switch to CDMA2000 because of the historical resistance to Qualcomm's brash style.
"From a technology story, Qualcomm has a strong case," Zweig said. "From a political story, they have problems."
Another problem facing both 2.5G and 3G is a potential lack of consumer demand for the high-speed services.
"So you have high data speeds. What are people going to do with it?" Zweig asked. "Will this backfire?"
Jennifer Davies' e-mail address is jennifer.davies@uniontrib.com. Her phone number is (619) 293-1373. |
